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人口紅利對我國經濟的影響

時間:2019-06-01 19:59來源:畢業論文
介紹人口紅利的基本信息,包括定義、基本特征及條件以及相關文獻綜述。其次講述了人口紅利對經濟增長的內在作用機制,并實證分析考察了人口紅利對我國經濟的影響并給出結論

摘要 從 1978 至 2005 年,中國 GDP 實現了年均 9%的增長速度,這一成績被稱為“中國奇跡”。同樣,早在上世紀50年代到 90年代期間,日本和“亞洲四小龍”克服了資源匱乏對經濟發展的限制,通過其他途徑振興經濟并改善了居民生活水平,實現了社會的全面進步,這些成績被譽為“東亞奇跡”。他們之間相同點是,經濟發展階段都發生在人口結構即從高出生率、高死亡率和低自然增長率轉向低出生率、低死亡率和低自然增長率的轉變階段。根據一些中國機構的研究,造就“中國經濟奇跡”的最重要因素之一就是“人口紅利”,其對 1982-2000 年期間人均GDP 增長率的貢獻達到了 26.8%。其特征是,在人口轉變過程中,社會進入了勞動適齡人口比重較高、老少撫養比較低的“黃金時期”,對社會經濟發展十分有利。但人口紅利并非可持續,隨著我國人口老齡化的加速、人口紅利的逐漸消失,這種變動必然通過影響一系列變量最終傳遞到我國各個方面,包括經濟方面的影響,如宏觀層面的儲蓄、消費、投資等的影響,這些人口轉變意味著中國今后的經濟發展將不再擁有大量廉價勞動力供給的優勢,當今的“用工荒”、“技工荒”和延長退休的計劃等等也說明了這一點。因此,深入探討我國的人口紅利變動具有重要意義,這就是本文的出發點和目的所在。  本論文先介紹人口紅利的基本信息,包括定義、基本特征及條件以及相關文獻綜述。其次講述了人口紅利對經濟增長的內在作用機制,并實證分析考察了人口紅利對我國經濟的影響并給出結論。 35878

源¥自%六^^維*論-文+網=www.aftnzs.live


  【畢業論文關鍵詞】 人口紅利、儲蓄率、撫養比、勞動參與率  
Abstract The impact of the demographic pidend on China's economy From 1978 to 2005, China achieved an average annual GDP growth rate of 9%, which  is called "Chinese miracle".  Similarly, during the early 1950s to the 1990s, Japan and "Four Asian  Tigers" overcome the lack of resources limits on economic development,  they  improve  the living standards  by other way of economic,  and achieve a comprehensive social progress, which is known as the "East Asian Miracle". What simple between them is that the stage of economic development have occurred in the population structure is changing phase shift  from high fertility, high mortality and low natural growth rate to low fertility, low mortality and low natural growth rate. According to some Chinese institutions, one of the most important factors  to cteate "Chinese economic miracle" is the "demographic pidend", its contribution to GDP growth per capita in the period 1982-2000 reached 26.8%. Their characteristic is that in the demographic transition process, the society was higher proportion of the working-age population,  low  young and old dependents relatively  called  "golden period"  which is  favorable  to  socio-economic development. But the demographic pidend is not sustainable, as the accelerated aging deeper, the demographic pidend will    disappear, this change will be bound by a number of variables affect the final delivery to every aspect of our country, including the impact of the economic aspects, such as the macro-level of savings, affect consumption and investment, which means that the future demographic transition economic development in China would no longer have a large supply of cheap labor advantage, today,  "labor shortage", "shortage of skilled workers" and to extend the retirement plans and so  on  also illustrates this point. Therefore, depth discussion on the changes in the demographic pidend is significance, which is the starting point of this article and purpose. This paper  introduces  the basic information of demographic pidend  first, including  definition,  basic characteristics and conditions and the related literature review. Secondly, about the demographic pidend of economic growth in the internal mechanism of action, and empirical analysis examines the impact of the demographic pidend on our economy and give conclusions.  人口紅利對我國經濟的影響:http://www.aftnzs.live/jingji/20190601/34057.html
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